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Development of the sales forecast | Marketing Concepts.

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Sales forecast differs from the potential of the company's sales. This establishes what will be the actual sales of the company to a certain degree of company marketing effort, while the sales potential evaluates what sales are possible in the various levels of the marketing effort, assuming that there are certain conditions of the environment.
It is also called as the technique that allows you to calculate projections of sales of a fast and reliable way, using as sources of data, whether inventory transactions or sales turnover. It also allows to estimate the demand into the future, based on historical information generated by the movement of products from the Inventory Control module or by the sales of the Invoicing module.

Advantages:

Support for decision making by the management of marketing, sales and production by providing them with accurate, and consistent information which is calculated using mathematical forecasting models, historical data of the behavior of sales and the judgment of the Executive representatives of each involved Department of the company.
Greater safety in the handling of information related to the company's sales.
Greater flexibility in the preparation of forecasts and for the creation and comparison of multiple scenarios for purposes of analysis of projected sales.
It supports sales in an effective and timely manner decisions, predict the products and demands guidelines established within the Master Plan of production.
Generally accepted for the development of forecasting techniques are divided into five categories: Executive judgment, surveys, analysis of series of time, regression analysis and market testing. The choice of the method or methods will depend on the costs involved, of the purpose of the forecast, the reliability and consistency of historical sales data, of the time available to make the forecast, the type of product, the characteristics of the market, the availability of the necessary information and the expertise of managers to forecast. The usual is companies to combine various forecasting techniques.

View Executive

It is based on the intuition of one or more executives experienced in relation to products of stable demand. Its drawback is that it is based only in the past and is influenced by recent events.

Prognosis of the customer survey

Useful for companies with few customers. Asked that type and quantities of products they intend to buy for a certain period. Industrial customers tend to give more accurate estimates. These surveys reflect the intentions of purchase, but no actual purchases.

Forecast of the sales force survey

Retailers estimate sales in their territory for a certain period. The sum of the individual estimates make up the Outlook of the company or Division. The disadvantage is the tendency of sellers to make estimates very conservatives provided by obtaining future commissions and bonuses.

The method Delphi (Delphi)

Engage experts who make initial forecasts that the company promedia and returns them to refine individual estimates. The procedure can be repeated several times until the experts--working separately - reach consensus on forecasts. It is a method of high accuracy.

Time Series analysis

The historical data of the company's sales are used to discover trends in seasonal, cyclical and random or erratic type. It is an effective method for reasonably stable demand products. Using moving averages we determine first if there is a seasonal factor present. With a system of simple linear regression trendline of the data we determine to establish whether there is a cyclic factor present. The random factor will be if we can attribute an erratic behavior due to random events non-recurring sales.

Regression analysis

It tries to find a relationship between the historical sales (dependent variable) and one or more independent variables, such as population, income per capita or gross domestic product (GDP). This method can be useful when there are historical data that cover large periods of time. It is ineffective to predict sales of new products.

Market test

It becomes a product available to buyers in one or more territories test. Purchases and consumer response to different marketing mixes are then measured. Based on this information are projected sales for larger geographic units. It is useful to forecast the sales of new products or the products on new territories. These tests are expensive in time and money, in addition to alert to competition.
Published for educational purposes
Concepts of Leadership and Marketing

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